April saw the largest dollar volume in transactions for Pitkin County
real estate this year, a new report shows, bolstered in part by
billionaire Roman Abramovich’s $36.375 million home purchase in
Snowmass.

The number of transactions last month, 88, also picked up in April when
compared to March, which saw a relatively anemic 48 transactions,
according to a report Land Title Guarantee Company issued this week.

Even so, the report, which is based on transactions recorded with the
county, reflected the cracks that began to surface in the local real
estate foundation last fall and have continued into this year. Even
though last month’s real estate dollar volume and transactions moved in
a positive direction relative to other months this year that preceded
it, April dollar volume was still down 32 percent compared to April
2007 and the number of transactions last month was down 35 percent
compared to April 2007, the report shows.

Seasoned brokers, however, say they aren’t worried.

“Not one bit,” Craig Morris of Aspen-based Morris & Fyrwald said
recently. “There are still plenty of transactions taking place. ...
It’s tough to compare any year to a record year that comes on the heels
of six straight record years. The trees don’t grow to the sky. You have
to expect a pause or a hiccup from time to time and that’s what we’re
feeling right now.”

Several brokers predict this year’s total dollar volume will be more in
line with 2005, which set a record at the time when annual dollar
volume first exceeded $2 billion. But it will likely fall short of more
recent annual activity, they say, which saw even more record-setting
cash flow.

Many experts point out that the Aspen area is usually among the last
markets to be affected by problems playing out nationally and among the
first to emerge from them. While wealthy enclaves such as Greenwich,
Conn., have reportedly finally fallen victim to the nation’s housing
crisis, whether Aspen will follow suit remains to be seen. Like
Greenwich, the number of foreclosures in Pitkin County is also up.
There have already been 13 foreclosure filings in the county this year,
compared with just 15 for all of 2007. But a historical review of
county foreclosures shows that they fluctuate from year to year,
sometimes without any clear relation to bigger-picture economic trends.
There were 24 foreclosures in 2006, for example, and in 1996, 1997 and
1998 — during the go-go Internet-fueled ’90s — there were 32, 27 and
21, respectively.

“The Greenwich bubble has burst because the Wall Street bubble has
burst. But Greenwich isn’t a resort community,” said Sotheby’s Aspen
Land and Homes broker Tim Mooney. “People are always going to want to
live in Aspen because it’s beautiful and we have unparalleled
recreational opportunities. That’s not going away.”

Spring, summer and fall are the most attractive months to sell
property, according to Morris of Morris & Frywald, meaning that the
positive indicators for April could be the beginning of renewed action
for Aspen’s real estate economy.

“I think we’ll have a good, strong summer,” said Morris. “Our prices
will remain strong and one of the beauties of this market is the
majority of our market’s sellers don’t actually have to sell.”

Many deals in the county — and usually the ones that fetch the most eye-popping prices — are paid in cash.

Abramovich’s purchase of Leon Hirsch’s Wildcat Drive property last
month didn’t require a loan. The price per square foot for that
transaction was $2,543.71. Several industry watchers believe it won’t
be long before homes in the Aspen area fetch more than $3,000 per
square foot.

This is in large part due to what some people refer to as the
“billionaire effect.” There are more than 40 known billionaires with
connections to the Aspen area and even many more who visit but don’t
own property. Europeans, who are more accustomed to high
price-per-square-foot deals, are also taking a close look at Aspen real
estate given the currently favorable euro-to-dollar exchange rate.

Countless sources, including a 2007 year-end report prepared by Randy
Gold at The Aspen Appraisal Group, project prices to continue to climb
even if transactions continue to wane.

Land Title Guarantee Company’s latest report indicates mixed results
with the year-to-date average single-family home price falling 10
percent in Aspen to more than $5.37 million; the average single-family
home price increased 75 percent in the Snowmass Village area to more
than $8.15 million; the average single-family home price in Woody Creek
went down 46 percent to $4.58 million; Old Snowmass watched its average
single-family home price drop 31 percent to just over $3 million; the
average price for a single-family home in Basalt skyrocketed 141
percent to $3.23 million; and Carbondale’s average single-family home
slipped just 1 percent to $855,625.

hoop@aspendailynews.com [1]