Despite record-high gas prices, Aspen’s tourism industry officials do not expect the sky to fall this summer.
Early data from Stay Aspen Snowmass show occupancy forecasts are roughly on par with summer 2007 for Aspen, but down for Snowmass.
The Aspen Chamber Resort Association estimates that two-thirds of Aspen’s summer visitors arrive by car, a higher proportion than winter visitors. So far, contacts at the four area visitor information centers — the ACRA office, the Wheeler Opera House, the airport and the information booth at Galena and Cooper — are tracking right along with last summer, ACRA guest services coordinator Erik Klanderud said on Friday. As of Friday, approximately 16,000 contacts had been made in June, the highest number coming at the information booth in downtown Aspen. The total for June 2007 was 16,500, a number Klanderud expects to have been exceeded over the weekend.
The picture isn’t quite as rosy in Snowmass, where advance bookings for July were at 35 percent as of May 31, 5 points off the forecast for July 2007.
Tourism experts note that approximately 50 percent of area visitors book in advance, while the other half generally book last minute. Therefore, the true story of the summer tourism season can’t be written for another month or so.
“I’m as upbeat as ever,” said Aspen Square General Manager Warren Klug, noting that bookings at his downtown lodge are on pace with last year. “We well recognize that there are economic dark clouds around us potentially affecting tourism this summer. Still, we also know that Aspen attracts a more affluent visitor, and we are optimistic that our normal summer guests will still come to Aspen and enjoy all that this wonderful community has to offer in the warm-weather months.”
“There’s all kinds of reasons why we should be down, but we’re looking OK,” Klug concluded.
Stascha Kaelin of Stefan Kaelin Ski and Golf in Aspen sees two types of Aspen visitors: Second-home owners and general tourists. While second-home owners likely will not be affected by gas prices or an overall economic slump, more typical drive-to tourists might be, Kaelin predicted.
But only time will tell, she said. “Are we insulated or isolated? Aspen is not like the rest of the country,” she added.
One telling statewide economic indicator is traffic through the Eisenhower Tunnel along Interstate 70. After increases over 2007 figures for January and February, traffic numbers have been declining slightly — 2 percent for March, 3 percent for April and 3 percent for May — when compared to 2007, according to traffic counts kept by the Colorado Department of Transportation. So far in June, approximately 40,000 fewer cars have passed through the tunnel than in 2007, according to CDOT spokeswoman Mindy Crane. That would put the month on pace for another modest decline.
Klanderud, of ACRA, has another theory that might defy conventional wisdom on gas prices’ effect on Aspen tourism. With higher gas prices, more Front Rangers are likely to forgo the long road trip — to the Grand Canyon, for instance — and stay closer to home. Aspen and other mountain resort communities could actually stand to benefit, Klanderud said.
Another question worth considering: Is a $20 difference in the cost of getting to Aspen really going to stop anyone from coming? Klug, of Aspen Square, notes that with a 400-mile round trip from Aspen to Denver, and figuring a fuel economy of 25 miles per gallon, the increase in cost to drive to Aspen based on $4 per gallon of gas versus $3 per gallon of gas is $16.
curtis@aspendailynews.com