Continuing a trend that began in the summer or fall of 2007, real estate sales in Pitkin County took a tumble the first half of this year. Dollar volume dropped by half compared to last year — $717 million to date versus $1.43 billion in the first six months of 2007 — and the number of transactions is down by 32 percent.
This downward trend is not as sharp in Garfield County, where dollar volume dropped 22 percent and number of transactions dropped 36 percent, through June, over last year.
All figures are taken from a monthly market analysis by Land Title Guarantee Company, which bases its statistics on transaction data from the Pitkin County Clerk and Recorder’s office.
Although real estate sales records were set every year in Pitkin County for several consecutive years, the local market got really hot in 2005, and has since spiked and declined. The last time the dollar volume of sales was lower through June than it is now was in 2004, and, in fact, monthly sales activity shows that this year’s dollar volume is more comparable to 2004 than any other year since 2003.
Every month this year has been down in both dollar volume and number of transactions, with the worst slide thus far having been in March. With a 68 percent drop in dollar volume from the same month in 2007, March 2008 didn’t even crack $100 million in sales.
“We’re all hurting,” said Greg Hunter, sales manager for Morris and Fyrwald Real Estate, who added that 2006 and 2007 were “so phenomenally strong that it’s hard to maintain that kind of momentum.”
Still, not all indicators are in decline in one of the country’s priciest real estate markets. Average prices for single-family homes, condos and residential lots are all up over last year. The median single-family home price in Pitkin County is $3.795 million, 7 percent more than it was in 2007.
But prices are continuing to drop on a daily basis, said Hunter, as the price points in the market are readjusting to slightly more realistic levels — “realistic” at least for Aspen.
“We still have buyer activity here and everybody’s shopping for the best deal,” he said. “It’s a price-driven market.”
Average home price, which is affected more by extremely pricey sales, is up 12 percent in Pitkin County, to $5.2 million. Snowmass Village and Basalt have seen the most extreme increases in the average home price: 51 percent and 141 percent, respectively. That gives Snowmass Village an average single-family home price of $7 million, which is probably skewed upward by the $36 million sale of a Wildcat Ranch estate in April to a Russian oil tycoon.
Multi-family sales appear to be hot, with the median price up 28 percent over last year’s $1 million. The median price for Snowmass Village condos is up 27 percent — to $1.2 million — while those in Aspen are selling for $1.5 million, up 14 percent. Condos in Basalt are closing in on a median price of $600,000, up 14 percent over last year.
And vacant land isn’t doing too shabbily, either, with the median price of a lot in Pitkin County up 11 percent, to slightly less than $2 million.
In June 2008, dollar volume was down 41 percent over the same month in 2007, which was itself down 50 percent from June 2006. In fact, last June was the first month that was down significantly in several years. While June 2008 saw a dollar volume of $109 million in transactions in Pitkin County, June 2006, at the height of the bubble, had $375 million in sales (including a $48.5 million transaction).
At the same time, the 77 transactions recorded this June are only 8 percent less than the 84 last June. Forty percent of the residential transactions were in the $1-$2 million range, and 25 of 33 were classified as multi-family sales.
Another June statistic is also telling: The average residential sales price in Aspen that month, $3.8 million, is much higher than the average transaction sales price of $2.1 million, which includes deed-restricted properties and other employee units, water rights, easements and mining claims.
Fractional sales were up for the first time this year in June — 20 percent over June 2007 for a total of $4.6 million. That is probably because the number of transactions jumped from 12 to 17 in June 2008 compared with June 2007.
Morris and Fyrwald’s Hunter confirmed that, lately, in his firm, interest in and sales of fractional homes have increased. “It’s certainly an alternative to owning a single-family home at a more affordable price,” he said.
June’s spike hasn’t helped much with year-to-date dollar volume of interval sales: That figure is down 39 percent over last year. Fractionals are, however, a wildly fluctuating market, in which sharp upward swings generally follow a round of closings on a new project. Fractional sales in Pitkin County, for instance, increased from $65 million in 2004 to $178 million in 2005 to $181 million in 2006 and $90 million in 2007. This year’s numbers are trending far below those for 2004-2007, but several fractional properties are expected to close before the end of the year.
In conclusion, said Hunter, “we can’t panic. The market has paused and rolled back some, but it will rebound. Real estate here is a good investment, but it doesn’t come with a guarantee that it’s going to go up. Still, people want to live here.”
Garfield County down, too
Garfield County, which saw its first year of logging more than $1 billion in real estate sales in 2006, is down 22 percent year-to-date in real estate sales from the $440 million that changed hands by the end of June 2007. That represents a 36 percent drop in the number of transactions.
Garfield County’s median home price, however, is still up 6 percent over last year — at $382,500. Condos and other multi-family homes are selling for $266,000 in Garfield County, a 14 percent increase over last year. Residential lot prices are up 9 percent to $206,000.
The most significant changes are a 38 percent drop in median single-family home price in Battlement Mesa, and a 15 percent increase in median home price in New Castle.
Comparing real estate sales for every month since January 2005, dollar volume was highest for nine of the 12 months of 2007.
June’s $72.6 million in sales, for example, is much lower than the $106 million recorded in June 2007, but far short of the record of $157.5 million set in July 2007.
Almost 50 percent of the single-family home sales in Garfield County in June were in the $200,000 to $400,000 range.
lutz@aspendailynews.com