Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment in a series examining the impact of the nation’s economic problems on the Roaring Fork Valley.
Ski industry officials said they are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming ski season, despite an economic downturn that observers say is the worst the nation has seen since the Great Depression.
Forget a plummeting economy: When it comes to skiing, falling snow might be all that matters.
“One of the last things that people sacrifice is their ski vacation,” said David Perry, vice president of the Aspen Skiing Co. “It’s such a part of people’s souls, and it’s so important to people. An outside analyst may view it as discretionary. Skiers don’t view it as discretionary.”
Looking at indicators, Perry sees reason for both optimism and concern.
On the upside, season pass sales are up. Early bookings look good through most of the season. Air service is strong for the season, too, at a time when other resorts are losing seats. And while the dollar has started to gain ground, it has been low enough to keep attracting Europeans and other overseas travelers, which Perry said is helping to buoy some of those bookings.
On the downside, bookings for the early season and late season are low, Perry said. Additionally, air service is expensive, and flyers who want to check those heavy parkas or skis will have to pay extra.
“Clearly, no one’s immune from major economic downturns,” Perry said. “Not even Aspen.”
Aspen might be avoiding some of the pitfalls that are striking other resorts, though. Vail is warning investors to expect a dip in profits next year, due mostly to the sagging real estate market.
“We are certainly not immune to the dramatic challenges facing the economy today,” CEO Rob Katz told investors.
Some up-and-coming resorts are seeing construction setbacks. Montana’s Moonlight Basin reportedly has halted construction due to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, a primary backer. Idaho’s Tamarack Resort has filed for bankruptcy protection.
“You will see some deferral of plans that might be in the pipeline,” said Michael Berry, CEO of the National Ski Areas Association. But when it comes to skier numbers, he said, good snow trumps bad economics.
“What history tells us is that great snow is the ultimate bomb for the ski industry,” he said.
In the post-9/11 downturn, the stock market tumbled, but ski areas saw a 10 percent jump in visitors to set a record, Berry said. When the market fell in 1981, Colorado had a drought, and skier numbers plummeted. In 1969, the market fell, but so did the snow, and skier visits were up.
“I think people adjust,” he said. “I don’t care whether you’re in the middle-income or upper-income bracket. They give up a couple lattes to make it work.”
Ski area consultant Jerry Jones, of Edwards, agreed.
“I think that if we have good snow, we will have a typical season,” he said, “with probably a little bit of reluctance in the amount of time people go skiing, the number of times they go skiing. However, I think Aspen will be less affected by that than some of the other areas.”
dfrey@aspendailynews.com