Ski resorts are more adversely affected by scant snowfall than by economic recessions, according to a report prepared for the National Ski Area Association by a Boulder-based market research firm.
The analysis of industry-wide skier visits, snowfall and consumer confidence from the winter of 1978-79 to the winter of 2007-08 concludes that even when the national economy is in the trash, enough snow will make for a successful season. But the combination of scant snowfall and bad Wall Street news spells a dark winter for ski towns.
“Over the past 20-plus years, variations in skier/snowboarder visits have been more dominated by snow quality, temperatures, and timing of snowfall than by economic factors or consumer confidence,” concluded author and RRC Associates president Nolan Rosall.
The strongest such example is the 1981-82 winter, when consumer confidence was at then-historic lows and the economy was in recession, but the nation’s ski areas recorded 50.7 million visits. That marked a gargantuan jump from the dismal 39.7 million visitors the winter before, when the economy was better but the snow much worse.
This fall the consumer confidence index hit its lowest level ever recorded.
When stocks fall but snow doesn’t, however, as was the case in the 1990-91 season, schussers stay away. The industry saw the second fewest visitors in recorded history that year, according to the report.
Secluded ski stops like Aspen face more challenges than others in tough times, the report suggests, as visitors cut corners on travel costs by skiing closer to home.
“Remote destination resorts that are isolated from large local population centers will be the most vulnerable if snow is poor,” the report concludes.
Rosall’s analysis says resort operators should be prepared for last-minute bookers when the snow does come, and have easy-to-book vacation packages for them. The increasing crowd of international ski visitors can’t necessarily be counted on, either, he suggests, as the world economy follows America downward.
andrew@aspendailynews.com