Anyone running a business in Aspen or Snowmass Village this winter still has plenty to worry about - such as a global economic collapse - but an airline industry conference held this week at the St. Regis hotel provided some relatively good news for the resort on the air service front.
While there has been a recent 10 percent decrease in the number of airline flights in the United States, and significant cuts in some tourism-based markets such as Las Vegas and Orlando, Aspen's air service is likely to be the same or slightly above last winter.
"In the current environment, to have the same number of seats year over year is bucking the trend," said Bill Tomcich, president of Stay Aspen Snowmass and the point person on developing air service to the resort.
United Airlines, through its regional partner, SkyWest Airlines, has currently scheduled 11 flights a day to Aspen from Denver, although Tomcich said airline schedules are now fluctuating constantly as airline planners are being "surgical" about scheduling planes.
United also has scheduled two daily flights to Aspen from Chicago and three daily flights from Los Angeles. And the airline just added two flights to Aspen from San Francisco on Saturdays.
Frontier Airlines has four flights a day scheduled this winter from Denver. And Delta has a daily flight from Salt Lake City and another from Atlanta, which has connecting flights to most markets in the South.
In all, that's 22 daily flights to Aspen and the weekends have even more flights. Tomcich said that dwarfs the flight schedule of other Colorado destination resorts.
"Eagle is close, but nobody else comes anywhere close to what we have," Tomcich said.
Why the relatively fat air schedule to Aspen? Because the airlines can charge more for a ticket to Aspen, which matters when airlines are paying high fuel costs.
"Small community service is getting harder and harder to justify," Scott Kirby, president of US Airways, told the Aviation Forecast Conference. "Airlines have been losing money in a lot of small cities."
But not Aspen.
Tomcich said airlines operate in the black here, at least in the busy summer and winter months, because of the high price of airline tickets.
So while it costs more as a local to fly in and out Aspen, the fact that visitors are willing to pay the price means the airlines will keep on flying to resort.
"The strength of our fares is one of the biggest assets in this economy," Tomcich said.
This winter's airline schedule is all the more remarkable given the precarious state of the airline industry, which is being challenged by not only the cost of fuel, but by the cost of labor and a potential big drop in business travelers.
The airline humor was grim at the aviation conference.
Mike Boyd, an aviation consultant with the Boyd International Group, sponsored this week's Aviation Forecast Conference. During a presentation, one of his Power Point slides stated "Aviation's like the old Roman empire, barbarians are forcing it to shrink."
The "barbarians" include higher fuel costs, higher fares, inefficient small jets, and shrinking service, especially to smaller markets.
When asked about whether Frontier Airlines, which is trying to emerge from bankruptcy, could be counted on not to evaporate, he replied: "If it has the word 'airline' in it, worry about it evaporating, but comparatively, Frontier is in good shape."
But to its credit, the airline industry seems to have reacted quickly to the rapid increase in oil prices this year.
Oil was $89 a barrel but it hit $145 a barrel this summer, which caused airlines to look for inefficiencies under every floating seat cushion.
And, yes, it prompted the airlines to add steep fees for flying both you, and your luggage, to your final destination.
The fact that round-trip surcharges for three bags can now easily hit $350 has some in Aspen worried that customers won't come to the resort because of the extra cost of schlepping skis and boots.
Vail Resorts announced on Monday a promotion called "Baggage Bailout," which amounts to a modest $50 discount for its customers who book a four-night lodging and lift package by Dec. 1.
And Stay Aspen Snowmass is working on a deal with Federal Express so it can offer its customers a discount on shipping their skis, boots, poles and clothes to Aspen as part of a single vacation booking package.
Tomcich also recommends studying, and then printing out and bringing to the airport, the baggage fee policy on an airline's Web site. Even airline personnel get confused about the new charges for bags and there are many exceptions.
For example, United now considers one ski bag, with one pair of skis and a pair of poles, and one boot bag, with boots only, to be one piece of luggage - as long as it is under 50 pounds.
But is Aspen going to have a soft season because of the new baggage charges?
Not if you listen to Kirby, president of US Airways. He told a ballroom full of airline and airport executives on Tuesday that baggage fees are not proving to be a deterrent to travelers.
"Customers are not making decisions based on ancillary charges," he said. What drives consumer decisions, he said, are ticket prices and schedules.
Boyd concurs with Kirby that resort operators should not lose sleep over baggage fees.
"That is not going to deter people as much as price hikes," Boyd said.
Which means airline baggage fees are likely here to stay, even if ticket prices do climb higher.
Kirby also said there have been some operational efficiencies resulting from ancillary charges.
The baggage fees mean US Airways is handling 10 percent fewer bags, which has resulted in a 50 percent decrease in lost bag complaints.
US Airways has also stopped giving away free soft drinks and is now charging for all beverages instead.
As a result, only 15 percent of passengers are now buying sodas, which Kirby said allows the beverage cart to get out of the aisle sooner and makes it easier for passengers to get to the bathroom.
And the 10 percent decrease in the number of flights has also taken pressure off of the air traffic control system, which means fewer delayed flights.
"That was something that came through loud and clear," said Tomcich about this week's conference. "The airlines are actually recognizing operational benefits" as a result of higher oil prices and new fees.
"It caused the airlines to rethink their entire strategy," Tomcich said. "And the airlines are suddenly positioned in a fairly good place."
But lest too much optimism creep into the picture, Boyd said that the big questions are "Will the spending hold up?" and "How will skiing be affected by the economic downturn?"
In other words, if people still have money to spend on a ski trip to Aspen, they are at least going to find a seat on an airline to get them here.
bgs@aspendailynews.com
