Aspen's occupancy outlook for the rest of the winter is looking grim.

Bill Tomcich, president of Stay Aspen Snowmass, the central reservations agency for this area, said bookings are down "every single night" between now and March 16 compared to last year.

"It's bordering on alarming on how business seems to be evaporating in light of the best snow we've ever seen and the record number of airline seats and low fares we've seen come into this marketplace," Tomcich said Monday. "It's a substantial hole that's developed that seems to be getting bigger. I can tell you here at Stay Aspen Snowmass it's really, really quiet. It feels like April."

Call volume at Stay Aspen Snowmass - owned by the Aspen Skiing Co., the Aspen Lodging Association and Snowmass Village Resort Association members - is down 27 percent so far this month and unique visitors to its Web site for February are down 36 percent, he added.

The blame, Tomcich said, can be traced to a shaky U.S. economy and Aspen's "exorbitant" lodging rates. International visitors, who came here in droves last month, were able to absorb the high hotel rates.

"(Foreign visitors) were getting a bargain because of the weakness of the U.S. dollar," Tomcich said. "But international business is going to be taking a break for a while. Our business over the next four weeks is primarily domestic. The reality is lodging prices have become very expensive here compared to one year ago and compared to other destinations. It's hard to deny. ... So I think we've been riding a wave of momentum fueled largely by international business and now that that wave has crashed, it will be very interesting to see how our domestic business goes the rest of the winter."

A quick survey of room prices shows Aspen's lodging rates are not as competitive as other resorts. A stay in a one-bedroom unit at the Hyatt Grand Aspen this Friday night comes at a cost of $2,000 plus taxes. A stay in a studio at the Hyatt Grand Aspen on the same night brings the price down to $1,200. But over at the Park Hyatt Beaver Creek a suite with a king-size bed that night costs $749. The Little Nell offers a room Friday night that averages out to $810 per night but it requires a four-night visit. A comparable room at the Ritz Carlton Bachelor Gulch in Beaver Creek is $725. Reservations at popular resorts closer to the Front Range - and Denver International Airport - are even cheaper.

This past Presidents Day weekend was busy in Aspen with occupancy levels peaking at 82 percent. But Tomcich said he expected the weekend to go "well over 90 percent." He said he had to turn callers away because room prices were too high and reservation requirements were too long.

Tonight and last night are the lowest occupancy rates - about 65 percent - the area has seen since Dec. 20. The last seven weeks, average occupancy rates were well over 80 percent, he said.

"The good news is I do see another wave (of international business) on the horizon beginning March 16 during Holy Week," said Tomcich. "(Until then) we've got the rooms to sell, the snow to ski on and the available airline seats to get them here. But the demand is definitely softening."

hoop@aspendailynews.com